A 5 year trends summary
Posted on August 5, 2011 by jean-peter Fendrich
This is a 5 year trend prediction based on the different IT and other areas mentioned on this site. There are political, economical and social effects of IT trends that are only touched upon and not currently within the scope of this study.
All emerging IT that will be developed the coming 5 years are well known technologies. Either used in small scale already or available in lab environments. With an IT view the the dominating areas will be Mobility, Cloud services and continuing growth according to Moore’s Law.
Mobility: The Internet tablets such as iPad and other similar devices will grow to substantial volumes. Touch screens will be the dominating HCI for mobile devices during the next 5 year period. During the end of the period we will start to see more of new types of displays such as flexible displays and 3D displays but still in smaller volumes. Smartphones will eventually be standard in both the developed and emerging countries. Laptops will slowly be replaced by Internet tablets but still after 5 years both will be used within enterprises. As smartphones and other mobile devices get more “Intelligent” we will see business application especially designed for these devices and with web interface instead of the device native interface. Apple will keep it’s current market share using its own (and further developed) Operating System iOS. The dominating Mobile Operating system will be Android, the open source operating system for mobile devices. At current state the Nokia/Microsoft operating system will get some smaller part of the market for smartphones. It is not clear whether Nokia will keep its dominant position in emerging countries when the users begin to upgrade their cell phones to smartphones. Smartphones already give a huge variety of opportunities for business use and this will grow more. Instead of specialized hardware with its own software, we can now use the much more readily available smartphones and other mobile devices. It’s easier, cheaper and faster. In addition we get lower maintenance costs. The field is wide open for innovations.
Cloud services: For enterprises cloud solutions compete with internal operation solutions and may give lower operation cost. From a user perspective however, the possibility to store data in the cloud gives the user access to all data from any type of device from anywhere. There may be different security arrangement for private and company data but still they are both accessible………………………………kjkjkk mer om typer av applikationer
Moore’s Law: ……………. That means in practice that we every second year get double speed, double storage etc for the same price. Some components get half price every 2nd year with the same capacity. The development of batteries does not follow this formula. It follows a linear growth and will still be a bottle neck for mobile devices. As software runs faster it will get more advanced and appear to be more “Intelligent”.
Consequences for the Automotive business: The challenges for automotive business during the coming 5 years is Asian growth. Both for markets and production and….
Sustainability is another common challenge. As one of our core values is environmental care this is of course important but furthermore we are at point where some heavy and painful decisions have to be made.
When will the oil price be so high that other fuels are more cost effective? What are the alternatives for cities, for long haul etc?
As we get more larger cities and even more megacities the regulations and other constraints on automotive will be a real challenge for competition. How can Volvo support and develop these transport systems? This opens up for intelligent software and solutions.-x,.cv-.zcxvv-zvcözljmcxv